Mock Draft 2011 (Sorry Eagles' Fans - Nothing Till Day 2)
Sal V. Veritate- Carolina Panthers – Marcel Dareus – DT – Alabama
This pick continues to puzzle draft experts like no other first overall selection in history. The Panthers’ comically poor play last year, which consequently netted them this pick, can be attributed to holes at almost every position on the team. Although the Panthers’ quarterback situation appears dreadful, there is little confidence among NFL Scouts regarding this year’s class. New head coach Ron Rivera gained renown as the defensive coordinator for the Bear’s successful implementation of the Tampa 2 defense. During Rivera’s most productive years, Tommie Harris was a destructive force at Defensive Tackle. Dareus demonstrated the same traits in college that Harris did, making him a logical selection.
2. Denver Broncos – Patrick Peterson – CB – LSU
Denver has always implemented a “needs based” drafting strategy, selecting players that fill a hole, rather than selecting the best rated player on the board. The 32nd ranked pass defense in the NFL needs young talent to invigorate a team that showed its age last year. Don’t be deceived by the names Champ Bailey and Brian Dawkins. While they have marquee value, they also have arthritic joints at a position predicated on speed (Peterson ran a sub 4.4 Forty at his Pro Day.)
3. Buffalo Bills – Von Miller – OLB - Texas A&M
The Bills’ early round draft rationale can be described as confusing and unsuccessful. The Bills seem to buy into the “draft hype” created by the media and combine workouts worse than any other organization. After selections like Donte Whitner (reach), Marshawn Lynch (traded), Leodis McKelvin (great workout, little production), Aaron Maybin (ENORMOUS BUST), and CJ Spiller (bizarre and unimpressive). They especially are notorious for selecting players that are not at positions of need. Miller has been rising up draft boards at a rapid clip and does not play a position that the Bills are deficient at, thus making him a logical pick for the illogical Bills.
4. Cincinnati Bengals – AJ Green – WR – Georgia
Carson Palmer has made it lucidly clear that he will NOT wear Bengals Orange next year. His patience has faded with comically incompetent Cincy. Seeing as they often draft for need, quarterback will leak-du-jour for the NFL’s Titanic to plug. Cam Newton comes with character issues, never a red flag for Cincinnati, and mechanical issues, always a red flag for NFL scouts.
The Bengals will likely address another hole, wide receiver. They will select one of a handful of players considered “elite” by draft experts. AJ Green will not slip past the fourth selection.
5. **Potential Trade** - Arizona to Minnesota Vikings – Cam Newton – QB - Auburn
Minnesota has many pieces in place to make a run. They were derailed last year by bad quarterback play and a porous offensive line. Minnesota has not shied away from selecting mobile quarterbacks that require extra tutelage (Daunte Culpepper and Tarvaris Jackson). Newton demonstrated more ability than either of these signal callers at the college level. If Minnesota does not select a quarterback, they will likely have to trot out a journeyman to right the ship.
6. Cleveland – Nick Fairley – DT – Auburn
Cleveland has abandoned the 3-4 defense after using it for the better part of a decade. They have never had a adequate line to support this scheme. By hiring Dick Jauron as a defensive coordinator, they will likely adopt his 4-3. Fairley demonstrated the ability to fit in the 4-3 in college. Cleveland would also be able to make the increasingly more disruptive Shawn Rogers trade bait.
7. San Francisco – Robert Quinn – DE/LB – North Carolina
The San Francisco defense was abysmal last year, ranking in bottom half of the league for the entire season. San Francisco is reportedly trying to retool its defense to accommodate its 3-4 scheme. Robert Quinn is a rush first linebacker, similar to Bart Scott of the Jets. If the Niners intend to keep the 3-4, they will need to put someone on the edge to take pressure off of the porous secondary, which would also help alleviate the onslaught directed at their aging corners.
8. ***Potential Trade*** Seattle Seahawks from Tennessee Titans - Jake Locker –QB – Washington
All reports point to Jake Locker skyrocketing up draft boards. He has regained his previous luster lost from last year’s draft, where he was projected as high as #1 overall. Based on all reports, he is gaining favor above Blaine Gabbert, the original #1 QB on the board. Do not be surprised if former USC coach Pete Carroll, now at the helm in Seattle, makes his former Pac-10 adversary an ally.
9. Dallas Cowboys – Tyron Smith – T – USC
The Cowboys’ 2010 campaign ranks between New Coke and The Rapture on the all time list of greatest catastrophes. A team that appeared to be overflowing with talent appeared disinterested until Week 10. Much of their woe can be attributed to the decline in offensive line play. Never having replaced Flozell Adams, the Cowboys will be looking to fill the void as soon as possible. Considering that Jerry Jones often drafts for need, Tyron Smith could likely land in Dallas. However, the overall mediocrity of this draft’s offensive linemen could cause the Cowboys to trade down, especially if AJ Green is still on the board.
10. Washington Redskins – Julio Jones – WR – Alabama
Jones has been considered an elite talent since he was a freshman and would have been a first round pick if he was selected then. He has continued to impress, despite Alabama’s disappointing finish. The only things more distressful than Donovan McNabb’s gloomy Redskins tenure were the weapons that he stared at after yelling, “Hike!” Daniel Snyder, a man who in 2008 selected two WR’s and a TE with his first three picks (whiffing on all three), would not hesitate to bring Jones in. Do not be surprised, however, if the Skins make a push for a quarterback to quell Mike Shanahan’s buyer’s remorse.
By Marianne O'Leary11. Houston Texans – Prince Amukamura – CB – Nebraska
The Texans Pass Defense ranked last in the NFL for the entire season. They selected Kareem Jackson in the first round to help alleviate this deficiency. Sadly, his presence was not enough to stop the hemorrhaging. Amukamura was highly regarded among college scouts for the last two years. Assuming that Jackson is not a complete bust, this pick could afford the Texans some peace of mind in the defensive backfield.
12. Arizona Cardinals (from Vikings) – Blaine Gabbert – QB – Missouri
The Cardinals have voiced an interest in trading down. Ken Whisenhunt claims that the team will not let needs dictate their draft selection and will select the best available player. Earlier today, the Cardinals worked Blaine Gabbert out at their practice facility. Though Larry Fitzgerald has made it clear that he does not want to suffer through a quarterback’s growing pains, Whisenhunt, a former QB coach in Pittsburgh may not be able to resist the “value” that Gabbert possesses at #12.
13. Detroit Lions – Anthony Costanzo – OT – Boston College
The Lions have not been able to keep former #1 overall pick Matt Stafford upright for the last two seasons. Bolstering the offensive line is a must. The Lions recently selected a teammate of Costanzo’s, Gosder Cherilus, in the first round three seasons ago. Perhaps they will look to Beantown for further O-Line help.
14. St. Louis Rams – Aldon Smith – DE – Missouri
The Rams D has shown signs of improvement under coach Steve Spagnuolo. After parting ways with Adam Carikker, admission of his bust status, the Rams still have yet to fill the void at defensive line. Aldon Smith went from relative obscurity to highly touted pass rusher in his final campaign for the Tigers. Don’t be surprised if they try to beef up the interior of their defensive line with a name like Corey Liuget from Illinois as well.
15. Miami Dolphins – Mark Ingram – RB – Alabama
The Dolphins have lacked consistency at the running back position since Ricky Williams’ first stint. Ronnie Brown has had health issues and Williams is anything but reliable. Both of the aforementioned backs have hinted that they will bolt during this offseason, being free agents. Ingram is perhaps the only running back with a first round grade. If the comparisons to Emmitt Smith hold any credibility, Ingram would be a very worthy selection by any team.
16. Jacksonville Jaguars – Akeem Ayers – OLB – UCLA
During Jack Del Rio’s tenure, the Jaguars have made some of the most unpredictable draft decisions in recent memory: Reggie Williams, the molasses slow self promoting receiver at #9 in 2004; Matt Jones, the cocaine addicted converted QB at #21 in 2005; Derrick Harvey, a reach for an underwhelming talent even in college at #8 in 2008; and Tyson Alualu, who has actually shown some promise, but could definitely have been attained MUCH later than his #10 slotting in 2010. Del Rio’s job security remains positioned precariously close to the chopping block. He will likely have to select players that can make an immediate impact, but may have less potential. The two college positions that translate easiest to the NFL are running back and linebacker. Seeing as Akeem Ayers, a former teammate of Alualu is among the highest regarded at this position this year, don’t be surprised if Del Rio pulls the trigger on him.
17. New England Patriots (from Oakland for Richard Seymour)
Mike Pouncey – OG – Florida
I would not be surprised if Bill Belichick traded up this year. Athough he normally trades down to acquire more picks, this is the first year that he may already have too many picks. He also possess the first pick in the second round, in addition to his own, and multiple third round picks. He has more ammunition that even he can use. The Patriots have been difficult to project, partially because Belichick trades picks so frequently. If he decides to go in a needs based direction, Pouncey could be a logical choice. As the Logan Mankins situation became more convoluted, the Pats were likely already scouting his replacement. His brother has already demonstrated his ability to play on the NFL level, perhaps the Pouncey progeny can yield another able blocker.
18. San Diego Chargers – Stephen Paea – DT – Oregon St
The Chargers have always sought after players that fill holes and their scouting department has done an admirable job of this through the draft. One player they have not been able to replace for many years is Jamal Williams, their former stalwart at DT. If history proves correct, the Chargers will select a strong interior defensive lineman to fit into the 3-4 scheme. The most glowing praise about Paea always pertains to his upper body strength. The Chargers could look to bolster this deficiency with Paea at 18.
19. New York Giants – Cameron Jordan – DE – California
Though this pick may seem odd, the Giants always have defense on their mind. 5 of the last 7 first rounders have been defensive personnel and three of those players have been linemen. The Giants always seem to gear their draft strategy toward stockpiling pass rushers. As Osi Umenyiora’s status as insufferable malcontent becomes a yearly storyline, the Giants may make him more expendable and look to add more talent to their stable of defensive ends.
20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Brandon Harris – CB – Miami
Don’t be surprised if the Buccaneers to select DaQuan Bowers. They love selecting players that put up gaudy numbers in college – even if the selected player’s measurable skills aren’t as eye catching. One direction that they could go is corner. The Bucs do have a great talent in Aqib Talib. He has also proven to be self-destructive off the field, recently being charged with a gun related transgression directed at his brother-in-law. Tampa may need to be proactive with their secondary or this strength may erode quickly. Surprisingly, the available cornerback with the LEAST character issues went to the U. Brandon Harris may find himself moving North to Tampa.
21. Kansas City Chiefs – Torrey Smith – WR – Maryland
A deep threat opposite Dwayne Bowe could help the progress of young quarterback Matt Cassell. Torrey Smith reminds draft experts of what Darrius Heyward-Bey should be, fast and PRODUCTIVE! A 4.4 speed threat could truly help open up the Chiefs’ offense. Giving Jamaal Charles even more space could be a very dangerous proposal.
22. Indianapolis Colts – Martez Wilson – ILB – Illinois
The Colts do an astounding job of selecting good players in all rounds, one through seven. Conversely, they have struggled to select great players in the last seven drafts. Part of Indy’s inability to win a second title, despite having a Hall of Famer in waiting at quarterback, can be attributed to their average, albeit interchangeable, draft selections. Indy tends to take the best player available on the board, regardless of need. Martez Wilson is both the most highly regarded middle linebacker and speedy, something the Colts’ defense covets.
23. ***Potential Trade*** Pittsburgh Steelers from Philadelphia Eagles – Nate Solder – OT – Colorado
The Eagles have hinted that they would liked to trade out of the first round. The Steelers continue to allow Ben Roethlisberger to absorb punishment, although the selection of Pouncey Twin #1 last year was a step in the right direction. The Steelers need to delve into the deep talent pool of offensive tackles and select the one that they assess to be most agreeable with their offensive philosophy.
24. New Orleans Saints – DaQuan Bowers – DE - Clemson
Bowers, a former Rivals #1 Recruit, is a rare talent that has excelled at every level, leading the nation in sacks as a junior. Though he comes with injury concerns of his own, causing his draft stock to plummet, Saints Owner Tom Benson has a great young nucleus and can afford to gamble of the risky Bowers.
25. Tennessee Titans (from Seattle) – Ryan Kerrigan – DE – Purdue
The Titans are still clinging to the increasingly more archaic 4-3 defense. They made it known that this defense will be part of their future through their first round pick last year, traditional pass rusher Derrick Morgan. Morgan went down for the year with a knee injury, leaving this hole unfilled. Kerrigan possesses many traits that the former Titans’ dominant rusher DE Kyle VandenBosch once utilized in Nashville. The Titans may use this pick as a contingency plan after seeing potential disaster in Morgan.
26. Baltimore Ravens – Justin Houston – OLB – Georgia
This pick is a slam dunk if he is available (although the Jets may try to trade up and acquire him). Justin Houston is a speedy rush first linebacker. He would be an ideal fit in either the New York Jets or Baltimore Ravens 3-4 scheme. Though this may be perceived as a reach, this selection may be more likely than pre-draft grades dictate.
27. Atlanta Falcons – Corey Luiget – DT – Illinois
The Falcons have exhausted resources into defensive line selections in the recent past. Players such as Jamaal Anderson, 8th overall, and Peria Jerry 24th overall, have left the Falcons relying on the aging sack artist John Abraham. Could Luiget reverse the trend of failed Falcon pass rush? Coach Mike Smith has also voiced an interest in AJ Green or Julio Jones, but he does not have enough ammunition to move up to select these players.
28. New England Patriots – JJ Watt – DE – Wisconsin
The Patriots, as usual, have the luxury of being able to select for value. Bill Belichick, aside from being a snide, Machiavellian master of game day decisions, is an excellent evaluator of talent. The Patriots’ defense is similar to the Steelers’ in construction. JJ Watt could help fill the role that Aaron Smith does in Pittsburgh. This selection could be an excellent value at 28.
29. Chicago Bears – Gabe Carimi – OT – Wisconsin
What caused Jay Cutler to be sidelined in the NFC Championship Game? The league’s worst offensive line, allowing 56 sacks. Carimi provides flexibility, because he can play Guard or Tackle. When a line allows 56 sacks…it could use both.
30. New York Jets – Brooks Reed – OLB – Arizona
After being consistently pressed about his failure to mold Vernon Gholston, Rex Ryan could be looking to find his replacement. Reed has been shooting up the draft boards. He is a bit undersized, but he makes up for it in speed, running a 4.65 40.
31. ***Potential Trade*** Cincinnati Bengals (from Philadelphia from Pittsburgh) – Andy Dalton – QB – TCU
The Eagles have hinted that they plan to trade out of the first round and accumulate picks. Generally, teams trade into the first round to acquire glamour picks, quarterbacks, running backs, and wide receivers. The Bengals may have to select the 4th quarterback of the 2011 draft after Carson Palmer has made it clear that his 2011 season will not be in Ohio. Dalton’s draft stock has been rising. Perhaps it can find its way into the first round.
32. Green Bay Packers – Jimmy Smith – CB – Colorado
As Superbowl Champions, the Packers have the luxury to pursue any player. Their only need is to keep the momentum going. Jimmy Smith’s talent is undeniable. His character issues are well documented. The Packers could look to capitalize on their outstanding secondary and veteran leadership by selecting the controversial corner from Boulder. If they can corral Smith, this pick could be a tremendous coup.
Reader Comments (2)
So what will be the Eagles' picks?
Great picks here. I am surpised at the amount of tackles and linemen that go in the first round. They seem to be picks that stay for a long time and might not demand the price tag of the weapons.
A shot at Dawkins and Chump Bailey, but I think you are right on with Denver. Arizona should trade for Kolb and give Fitzgerald what he wants. The guy is a great talent.
Washington looking for wide receiver is an interesting pick. I would think they could use a back like Mark Ingram, but he would be fascinating to watch with the talent down in Miami.
Overall I think the picks are sound. Good humor and logic into each pick and I look forward to watching the draft and seeing if you are right. Thanks for the education and don't forget my Eagles question if you have the time.
After watching last night's draft, I have come to a conclusion (and a half):
1a) The Philadelphia Eagles remain the most difficult team to project.
or
1b) Andy Reid uses deception and deflection as frequently as the sinister Patriots.
I left the Eagles out of the first round based on multiple reports that the Eagles were planning on trading out of the first round and acquiring more picks. This leads me to believe that they were eyeing Danny Watkins from the beginning of the draft process, as he was not a projected first round pick. However, as more teams made surprising selections, such as Christian Ponder and Phil Taylor, the Eagles likely became concerned and selected Watkins a bit higher than most pundits would expect. The unpredictability of this year's draft forced Reid's hand and caused him to take a less risky path to get "his guy." If this scenario is not accurate, then Reid must be another Bill Belichick/Nicolo Machiavelli mastermind who manipulates the media in order to accomplish his underhanded draft agendas. This may be giving Andy too much credit.