President Obama Feels the Political Heat
Nick Carraway
Courtesy of AZ RainmanThis Fourth of July people all across America will gather around pools and beaches, eat barbecue, and stare in awe of colorful fireworks. Most will be glad for a brief respite from the pressures of work, family, and the general stress of living during uncertain times. The country is definitely ready for a holiday, but perhaps no one more than President Obama. Just three years after he easily won office, his mantras of hope and change seem very far removed from his recent news conferences. Unfortunately, for the President, things are probably going to get tougher for him politically as the election season heat only gets hotter.
For the last few campaigns, jockeying for the lead spot in American politics has taken place on the outside edges of the track. Instead of bi-partisan compromisers, a dissatisfied electorate has favored the candidate who seems most likely to buck the current system. President Obama himself benefitted from this trend in 2008 when his party gave him the presidential nomination over the safer, politically seasoned choice in Hillary Clinton. Back then, independents and new voters rewarded Obama's change and outsider persona by electing him president over Senator John McCain, a veteran and an experienced compromiser.
Now Obama is feeling the uncertain political future that sometimes afflict politicians who based their last campaign more on not being the other side than on actual governing experience and nuanced differences in policy positions. Once in office, Obama spent much of his political capital passing a contentious health care reform bill, but did little to take the lead in solving other, arguably more pressing problems. Just one year after his election, there was a negative change in the unemployment rate, scant hope in the severely damaged housing sector, and not much departure from his predecessor's policies in Iraq and Afghanistan.
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No longer able to rely on the 2008 promises of a new perspective in Washington, this year Obama has to explain some uncomfortable numbers. By the end of 2011, the Obama administration will have spent over $700 billion on military expenditures, more than any year under Bush. Even more dire, the federal deficit increased by almost $1 trillion in 2009 alone, and could exceed 100% of US gross domestic product by the end of his term if we stay on the current course. To be fair, some of this extremely high deficit to GDP ratio is a result of slowed GDP leftover from a severe economic crisis that occurred before Obama's term. However, it's also due to Obama's choice to continue the recovery strategies of Bush's final months in office; both pursued a Keynesian economic policy in which a government attempts to spend their way out of recession.
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Last election indicated that the public is not happy with this economic approach. With the staggering increase in government spending and unconvincing promises of recovery, the political winds shifted again in 2010. Tea Party Republicans capitalized on fears very similar to those that helped Obama win just two years earlier. A mixture of grass roots political activism and Tea Party media exposure pushed out incumbents, and Republicans made historic gains in congressional and gubernatorial elections across the country. Are we sensing a pattern?
In the last two elections, both the President and many in the current Congress have hit political paydirt by unfavorably linking opponents to three main issues: an uncertain economy, overreaches in foreign policy and federal spending, and overall public dissatisfaction with the direction of government. Guess what three areas threaten to derail Obama's re-election in 2012? If you said fixing the economy, justifying military spending, and breaking gridlock on a budget compromise, you're right. With all of these problems, the President has some difficult arguments to make.
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As the August 2nd deadline looms closer, the media can no longer avoid covering the debt ceiling or the speculations of economic catastrophe that come with it. Congressional Republicans clearly have the advantage in this debate. So rather than compromise, they are once again moving closer to a far right ideological stance, and advancing a risky, hardline position of no tax increases tied to debt reduction. The end result of this tactic is still in question, but there's a good chance it could work for the Republicans.
Not only do most Americans wince at the mention of more taxes during tight economic times, the public is weary of hearing politicians continually debate economic woes with no solutions in sight. The problems of Washington can seem very far away when average folks are worried about their own finances and employment. In other words, most voters have tuned out of politics for the summer which means they could be easily swayed into bringing about another change in leadership in the fall.
Government- slashing Republicans know that by nature of his prominent position, Obama will take most of the blame if the country really is allowed to hit the debt ceiling. No matter whose at fault, such a disaster would give them another example of big government failure and an excuse to cut more from government programs. However, the crisis probably won't materialize as anything more than a scare tactic. Even if it seems as though Republicans are less concerned about the debt ceiling than Obama, neither side wants to take such a chance, and they will eventually reach a compromise.
Unlike his Republican colleagues in Congress, Obama has to start pushing hard for a solution on the debt ceiling and soon. That's why we saw him try to work the bully pulpit last week, asking Congress to skip vacation and complete their homework on time. But with the July Fourth holiday coming up, was anyone paying attention?
Even if they were, the President came off as smug and impatient. Obama knows that each day a compromise isn't reached, things looks worse for him. Although Republicans know raising the debt ceiling is all but a foregone conclusion, Boehner and company are willing to take this one down to the wire, since it's good ammo and their eyes are really on taking back the White House. In the meantime, they get to bring up talk of poor economic data, troops overseas, and dysfunctional government that will be closely associated with Obama.
Whether that's fair to Obama and the Democrats or not hardly matters in American politics today. As Bush and the Republicans learned in 2008, when you are the sitting president, the next election is solely about you.
Reader Comments (2)
Really well written piece that shows the impact of the wars on the economy and the bursting of the housing bubble. The idea that lifting the debt ceiling is a foregone conclusion and the Republicans are just playing nasty politics so the media can bring up the deficit over and over is sickening. We have to make sure our programs that protect the working class from the Congress hawks and the slimely Wall Street bankers must go on.
I do not think that cutting taxes will increase our gross national product. Your theory is that if we have less money, our dollar will become more valuable. The notion is that intense suffering in the present will bring relief in the end. But who does the suffering? The president is the people's choice to protect the interest of the majority.
If there are real cuts to the Pentagon and the defense budget and higher taxes on the wealthy, we can have a balanced budget. We can not hope to lower the deficit in a time of recession and 18% unemployment. Obama can win as president if he brings the troops home, cut military spending and make the rich pay their share. But Republicans won't go for that.
I see no other way without making the poor and middle class (those making less than 250,000) suffer and destoying medicare and social security. This will be the people who will vote in President Obama and unless you make more than 250,000 (1/50 or about 3%), you will be a fool to do different.
That 3% pays close to 48% of the tax burden, so that becomes a painful reality for us also. But I would rather make the rich a little lighter in the wallets than the poor and middle class lose valuable income for suvival.
Great piece to contemplate.
I think they're all corrupt. Politicians disgust me and they waste, waste, waste, hard-earned tax payer dollars to feed their own ambitions and then neglect the very people who foolishly voted them in. I'm sick of the bs from DC and I wish Congress had to abide by the same rules they mandate for us to follow (i.e. health benefits, tax burdens instead of tax BREAKS). It's a damn shame that the middle class just ends up getting screwed over and over and the "haves' just keep reaping the benefits. I don't even think it's worth voting anymore. They make promises in vain and then we have to clean up the mess. Maybe I'll move to Canada or AU! Thanks for the post. Enjoyable and provocative as always!!