The Sarah Palin Mystique

By sskennelWill she or won't she run in 2012?

The mysterious Alaskan is once again driving media speculation as the summer campaign season descends upon us quicker than snow-weary shoobies arriving in droves to the Jersey shore. Like the beach on the first 80 degree day, Sarah Palin has an almost irresistible appeal for large swathes of the electorate in middle America. We know the tides will rise and fall, but have no such certainties about Palin making a run for the presidency.

It depends on which pundit you listen to. Some say Mama Grizzly is showing sure signs of the fire in the belly needed to run, while others believe her recent media buzz comes from ulterior publicity motives. The path that Palin ultimately chooses depends on the Palin brand, her substantive political platform, and the ever-changing field of Republican candidates.

Despite some time away from the spotlight, the well-known Sarah Palin brand is assuredly a strong attribute in any potential campaign. The "One Nation" bus tour she kicked off at a biker ally in Washington, DC today should drum up enough publicity, voter support, and donations at SarahPAC.com needed for a late entry into the primaries.

There is no other candidate on either side with an electric image like Sarah Palin's. Could you imagine President Obama or Governor Pawlenty pulling off the leather jacket and a skullcap helmet look? No way. But Palin on a Harley? It's a perfect fit for the brand she's been styling with books, TV shows, and speaking appearances since 2008.

In a message clearly geared to her base, Palin ended her blog post today, saying "Let’s roll on to honor our vets, to secure our blessings of liberty, and to fundamentally restore our proud America!"

Whether its purely fabricated or sincere, Palin's media prominence taps into an ideology. A large socially-conservative voting bloc is afraid that smalltown, working class America is dissappearing. Few, if any, of the other potential Republican challengers can match her appeal to Tea Party voters who are eager to make Obama a one term president. Huckabee could have won social conservatives, but he, like Palin, is making too much money as a Fox News personality. Tim Pawlenty hasn't done anything to improve his name recognition problem except to start calling himself "T-Paw".  And although he has a financial edge, Mitt Romney seems to be stuck in the bland role of cookie-cutter Republican.

by DonkeyHoteby DonkeyHoteyby DonkeyHotey

 With high marks in recent polls and the Republican establishment hungry for a more exciting candidate, Palin could certainly mount a competitive primary campaign. But how far will she get in a general election against Obama? The President's campaign advisors and the mainstream media would love for her to try.

No matter how good her branding is, Sarah Palin still has huge liabilities in her substantive policy background. While Palin's comments have made headlines in many recent public policy debates, it's been a while since the former Governor actually had to translate opinions into real decision making. Leaving Alaskan politics in the middle of her term as Governor seriously hurts Palin's chances in the national political arena. To her worst critics on the left, the abdication makes Palin look like more of a for-profit celebrity than a dedicated public servant. Even to her supporters, premature departure from elected office underscores doubts on Palin's readiness to handle the intense pressures that come with the high office of commander-in-chief.

by DonkeyHoteyEven if Palin had a spotless record, an element of the press and the public will inevitably turn against her simply on the basis of gender. After watching how quickly Palin was attacked and the frequent, mysogynistic media characterizations of Hillary Clinton, one can't help but conclude that Obama's success in 2008 came partially from the hushed sexism that still persists in American politics. Older and wiser in 2012, Sarah Palin might be content to let Michele Bachmann bear the brunt of any sexist attacks, while the Minnesota Congresswomen still pushes Tea Party issues to the forefront of the debate.

But is Sarah Palin the type to be so easily discouraged by the "lamestream media"?

With painful memories of her critics in the 2008 campaign still fresh in her mind, Palin rarely misses any opportunities to generate positive PR for herself. She's doing it rather unconventionally as well.

Last week, RealClearPolitics posted an article that revealed a secret Sarah Palin documentary aimed at extolling her successful rise in Alaskan politics.  With a premeir set for Iowa, the good publicity comes just in time for the Iowa caucus and to combat any potential negative impact of 26,500 emails from Palin's governship that will be released in June. Titled "The Undefeated" by conservative filmmaker Stephen K. Bannon, the movie shows Palin as a political maverick and the true Tea Party candidate, while avoiding Troopergate, the Couric interviews, and other low points since her arrival on the national stage.

Politcal messaging aside, one last logistical factor contributing to the mystery of Sarah Palin's 2012 plans are  reports that her family has purchased a $1.7 million home in Scottsdale, Arizona. Could a move to the lower 48 signal a new, more convenient campaign headquarters for Palin? Or is she trying to keep a closer watch on her daughter Bristol, whose celebrity profile has taken off since the stint on Dancing with the Stars?

Considering all the factors mentioned above and a conspicuous lack of fundraising, it still seems unlikely that Sarah Palin will actually run for president in 2012. The Alaskan firebrand has neither set up offices in key primary states, nor formed an exploratory committee.

If the Arizona home purchase is true, it's more probably that Palin has her political ambitions set on Jon Kyl's Senate seat. Kyl has already announced that he will not seek re-election in 2012. Capturing this vacancy in a conservative district would allow Palin to strengthen her job resume, and provide her some distance from her poorly handled gubernatorial exit. Not only could Palin stay on her issues in 2012, she'll be guaranteed a high public profile battling in a divided Senate, gaining her valuable political experience for a run in 2016.

A bus tour, a feature film, and a new house are all fine for now, but Palin's best asset is bigger than any publicity stunt. It is her mysterious potential to be a huge unknown factor in presidential politics. Knowing she could set herself up to be queen later by being a potent king-maker now, Sarah Palin isn't ready to let go of her unique mystique just yet.

by DonkeyHotey

Comments

[James Dugan]

An indepth look with strong writing. I am reading a book right now that said Hemingway was hardly a writer at all until he found politics. I think some of your best stuff comes from the poltical side.

I am interested in having a woman run for president, on either side. It is time to break that job classification. If the Republicans hope to win in 2012, and I don't think they will, they will have to run a female. Now Palin is seen too far to crazy for most of America to give her a shake, but I think you are absolutely right on her moving towards the Senate. It will be a chance for her to re-shape her into a more middle of the road Republican that many Americans would desire. It would give her a chance to shape policy on national level and for Americans to see her in a political light instead of celebrity gloss.

I hope the first woman comes from the Democratic side, but Republicans seem to have more courage to push women to the forefront, which is embarrassing to my party. I mean who was the last real female Democratic leader other than Clinton, who had the perils and benefits of being the First Lady?

Good piece and women should play a more pivotal role in shaping the future of the Presidency. I do not think it will happen in 2012, but I do see and feel that there will be a good chance for a female president in 2016.

Thanks for the lunch

[Patrick Edmonds]

What's with the pictures? Pretty bizarre!

Palin is a liability for the Republicans. If there is an ounce of integrity left in the party, then Palin should not be representing it whatsoever. Dugan's feminist ideals aside, I doubt most women want Palin to be the first female president. And realistically, her candidacy is as much a joke to me as Trump's. Palin is a media mogul now, plain and simple. Also, she is not capable of competing with Obama- intellectually or otherwise. I'm not an Obama advocate, but the thought of Palin going up against Obama in a substantive debate on foreign policy, economics, health care, etc. is absurd. Palin's catchphrases and one-line jibes at the Democrats and oversimplified politicizing will only carry her so far.

If she is merely attempting to capture a senatorial post in Arizona, realizing she's too green at this stage, then more power to her. If, as you assume, she'll be drawn back to a more moderate stance with an eye for the 2016 Presidential race than I think she's thinking, or being advised, sensibly. Because if things don't get any better and Obama is still our President in 2015, then I will admit anyone can ruin (I mean run) this country, even Sarah Palin!