Juking the Stats?: The Wire still Resonates
Patrick EdmondsWith my last remaining weeks of summer, I always return to a favorite book, movie, or show. I like reading or watching something that I am certain will leave me satisfied at its conclusion so that I can begin the new school year in a positive frame of mind. This year I turned to my favorite TV show of all time, David Simon’s and HBO’s The Wire, specifically the series final installment, Season 5. Season 5 of The Wire, much like the final chapters of a Dickens’ novel, connected and perfectly concluded the four previous seasons’ focuses of the failing institutions in urban America. From the war on drugs and law enforcement (All 5 seasons) to the decadence of unions and industry (Season 2) to the plight of inner-city schools (Season 4) and to eventually the institution responsible for covering all of these issues, the newspapers (Season 5), The Wire brilliantly exposed the synthesis and complicity amongst all of these aforementioned establishments. It has been two years since The Wire ended, on its own terms, but a recent look at the Philadelphia Inquirer reveals that the issues raised in all five seasons still resound in large cities across the country, especially in Philadelphia.
In Season 4 of The Wire, the show takes certain members of the cast into an inner-city Baltimore middle school. Season 5 finds the newly elected mayor, Thomas Carcetti, attempting to make a run at Maryland governor on a 15-point increase in 3rd grade test scores. What those test scores did not show is the lack of sustainability behind them into the middle school years, the inundation of test preparation being placed on schools, teachers, and students in lieu of meaningful, genuine classroom instruction, and the reality that those numbers do nothing to improve the lives of the children judged by them. The show’s ability to go behind the scenes and show the arbitrariness of these federal mandates and the scores that come with them is unfortunately ignored each fall when real-life politicians flaunt their county’s, city’s, or state’s supposed progress.
September 4th’s Inquirer contained a front-page story touting the recent improvement in public schools’ test scores. Apparently 78% of Pa.’s public schools are meeting federal academic improvement targets, which is up four percent from last year. This recent, apparently successful news is being hailed by Pa. Governor Ed Rendell as a reflection, "…that Pennsylvania is boosting achievement, and that we've got tremendous momentum on our side…” However, a deeper look into the numbers shows that significant progress is not actually occurring. To achieve these standards is hardly a grand triumph. According to the article, schools can reach these goals through a number of mediocre accomplishments. Schools must only have 63 percent of students at grade level in reading and a measly 56 percent at grade level in mathematics or show a 10 percent reduction in students below grade level from the previous year.
Essentially all schools must do currently to have their local politicians pat themselves on the back is to have a failing percentage of students at grade level in reading and math. Right? Wouldn’t 63 and 56 percent by all school systems’ standards of grading be considered failing? Or, schools can reduce their previous derisory scores by 10 percent to be considered doing well, which in reality means a school could have 90 percent of their students below grade level and merely bring that number down to 80 percent the following year and they will have met the federal standard for success. Rendell, obviously equated this recent explosion in achievement to his cabinet’s increase in educational funding. He also went beyond merely applauding himself and his cabinet for this victory to contending that if these improvements continue, then Pa. will, “…look to the future to produce a well-educated and disciplined and well-prepared work force that will hold Pennsylvania and Pennsylvania's economy in good stead for decades and decades to come…" Unfortunately for the governor, another recent Inquirer piece seems to be contradicting his optimistic speculations.
September 5th’s Inquirer ran a front-page story concerning the increasing jobless rate affecting all of America’s industries, except coincidentally, education. According to the piece the unemployment rate is at 9.7 percent and another 216,000 jobs were lost just recently. The hardest hit were African American teens, ages 16-19, which has a 33 percent unemployment rate. Season 4 of The Wire, in their attempt to convey the plight of urban schools, focused on four seventh grade African American friends whose paths eventually diverge. By the end of the 5th season, only one of the young men is on a path of legitimate success, the other three heading down a road of drugs, crime, and despair.
The Inquirer’s article also reveals that construction and manufacturing jobs were hit particularly hard, with a combined 128,000 jobs lost. These jobs have often been refuges for members of society with poorer educational statuses. The Wire’s 2nd season shows this decline in industry and labor also. Looking at the docking union and cargo industry and the lack of honest work for the blue-collar of America, the second season is eerily prophetic of what happens when the middle-class are abandoned and left to disappear into the squalor of the lower class of society. The show, just like history teaches us, portrays that when there is inept education and little to no decent paying work, the security of society will suffer and crime will inevitably rise. However, another September 4th article, that has received a lot of attention for its seemingly outstanding news, seems to contradict this historical trend.
According to the article, which was also published on the first page, Philadelphia police are solving more murders and murder rates as a whole are way down. At the current rate, Philadelphia detectives are looking to achieve what is believed to be unprecedented by most large city standards by having an 80 percent clearance rate for their homicides. This is almost a 30 percent spike since 2006, again unbelievable. In addition to these incredible numbers, the article also states that murders at this point of the year compared to the last two years are down 30 percent. These exemplary numbers are being credited to the extra money being spent by the city, the reorganization and improved managing of police officers, especially homicide, and a better outreach to the communities.
These numbers would seem to also counter much of what The Wire had to say most consistently throughout all five of its seasons. The show portrayed the problem of violence and crime in big cities to be something insurmountable due to political posturing and law enforcement corruption. Again though, Philadelphia seems to be the anomaly in opposition to David Simon’s cynical views of big city crime and politics. Or, are these numbers the most relevant and disheartening of all the aforementioned stories covered by The Inquirer?
One of the most consistent themes of the show was the idea of deception vs. truth. This motif was best reflected in what I believe the show’s mantra to be, “Juking the stats”, which simply means to falsify the numbers. The idea, as portrayed in the show, is that when heads are about to role and bosses are going to be fired, the police commanders will do anything to keep their jobs. They’ll turn a felony into a misdemeanor and a misdemeanor into a non-issue. In one season, one commander is so overwhelmed with the numbers game that he decides to legalize drugs in his district, which initially receives great applause from his bosses due to the significant reduction in crime. This concept of juking the stats is applied all five seasons and not just to the police department though. It’s found in the schools, on the streets, at the docks and in the newspaper room, who is potentially the most complicit, from Simon’s perspective, for reporting the numbers and condoning the lie for the sake of a good story and increased readership.
I wonder when reading the news about Philadelphia’s increased homicide clearance and decreased murder rate why there was no reporting on other forms of crime in the city. Also, I wonder, as I always have when these numbers are released, why The Inquirer never reports on the number of shootings that occur in the city. In 2006, there were over 600+ shootings from January to May, which at that rate would mean there would be over 1200 shootings in a year! Are shootings also down, or are the shooters just becoming less accurate. I am not saying that the police department is guilty of lying about the numbers they have, but there are different types of lies, one of the worst being a lie of omission.
So, that leaves you the readers with the burden of rethinking this news recently reported in The Inquirer. With the exception of the unemployment rate, things seem to be improving for Philadelphians and Pennsylvanians. Students are smarter and streets are safer. If you’re like most people, you won’t give a second thought to these numbers, especially if they do not directly affect you. You’ll accept them for what they are and embody Det. Bunk Moreland’s quote from episode one of the 5th season, “The bigger the lie, the more they believe.” Or, maybe you will question them and look at them from a different perspective. Here’s hoping that you’re not just another average statistic.
Reader Comments (3)
You led me on this path to the Wire before and your convincing essay will finally cause me to watch this. Such powerful stats conclude that education is more about politics than social benefits. I appreciate the hyperlinks with this confusing topic.
I think we have to revamp the whole education system. I think there should be benchmarks like the graduation exams, but there should be free tutoring and year round schooling to keep students and familes involved. I never understood the idea that a state or locale should educate you so that you can be useful. I never understood why they burden of creating schools were put mostly on the local people and state, regardless of their prosperity. As if people would not be useful if they didn't have the state around.
The expense of education which now includes computers, books, specialized administration, curriculum, techs etc. etc. that exist outside the teacher and student relationship has resulted in school districts to be dependent on the political whim of state and national government to pay for their schools. For the good or bad, the state and national system must come and create equal pay and resources in communities.
The nobility and difficulty of educating everyone is a new enterprize, but I hope one day we figure out how to do it. Great post and connection.
Thanks for the feedback! This was a challenging piece to write because of its broad range of topics. I tried to establish a connection between the four establishments, much like The Wire did as a show, but only place the connection with real-life, present day examples. Trying to balance the focus amongst the four issues, while at the same time incorporating synopses of the different seasons was hard to write and I imagine challenging to read.
However, I find it interesting that you took from it an emphasis on education. I often contend that if we were to truly overhaul and reform our educational system, all of the other major societal ills would in turn improve as well. This is not just professional bias. A stronger, educated base would create more jobs, decrease crime, improve health, and best of all, increase our readership. This would obviously not occur over night. It would take years of reforms before any dramatic change would be seen. We, as Americans, unfortunately want everything instantly and are unwilling to subscribe to seemingly unorthodox methods of schooling, law enforcement and health care.
Also, I don't know if this amelioration needs to be performed by the federal government. I would like to see a rogue state and governor challenge his counties and communities to accept drastic change throughout the system. Going to a year-round schooling system would be the first step and allocating funds equally throughout the districts would also help. Rendell has actually tried to rectify this last point, but the extra money to underfunded districts is currently frozen.
If we continue in the direction we are going, eventually all of the band-aids will fall off and our institutional sores will be fully exposed for better or worse, I'm not sure.
Great point about the numbers. Education and other large social issues are such a catch 22. We can't just let them go unchecked; there needs to be some kind of tracking system to see if they are on the right track. And while standardized tests seem like the most practical objective measurement, it is an unfortunate fact that any statistics can be manipulated, especially by the media. In the end, I think both quantitative and qualitative data needs to play a role in how we determine what educational strategies will reap the most benefit. But the problem is that qualitative data, the kind that actually measure improvement in quality of life from education, takes so much time and effort to tally that we are stuck with the imperfect standard of test scores until the people in the state capitals and the voters recognize the problem inherent in this assessment technique and adopt the required amount of patience needed for alternative measures.